World Cup 2014’s Potential Dark Horses - Belgium

                                            

The World Cup qualifiers haven’t yet finished, but people have already started predictions regarding who may win the WC. The usual suspects like Spain, Brazil, Argentina, Netherlands, Germany, Italy are backed by most people to win the World Cup. But in every World Cup, we see one or two teams who upset all odds and perform beyond expectations. Whether it be Croatia(Semis) in 98, Turkey and South Korea(Semis) in 2002, Uruguay(Semis) in 2010. So we will take a look at some of the teams who can pose such a threat again in World Cup 2014. First we will discuss about Belgium, and then we will discuss other potential dark horses.

Nickname- Red Devils(No its not related to Manchester United)

Manager- Marc Wilmots

Captain- Vincent Kompany

Fifa Ranking- 19

They are in Grp A of the European Qualifiers and are leading the group with 16 points along with Croatia who are second due to an inferior goal difference. They have an excellent team, and some of their youngsters are simply world class. Boasting the likes of Thibaut Courtois and Simon Mignolet in Goal, Vertonghen, Vermaelen, Kompany, Van Buyten, Alderweireld in Defence, Defour, Fellaini, Witsel, Dembele, Hazard in Midfield and Mirallas, Benteke and Lukaku as Forwards, they have an excellent squad. Managed by Mark Wilmots, their first aim would be to top their European Qualifying group and thus gain an Automatic berth in WC, and then think about how far they can go there. 

Strengths-Young dynamic team with lots of potential, on their day, they can match, and even beat the very best. Solid defence and midfield.

Weakness-On big occasions such as the World Cup, experience is also required, but most of their best players are very young and lack experience of a big International tournament. Their forwards don’t seem to score a lot of goals, with their highest goalscorer in their current team being centre back Daniel Van Buyten with 10 goals(70 caps). Kevin Mirallas has 6 goals in 34 caps, Romelu Lukaku has 3 in 19 games, while Benteke has 4 in 12.

Key Players- Kompany, Fellaini, Hazard.

Upcoming European Qualifying fixtures- vs Serbia(H), vs Scotland(A), vs Croatia(A), vs Wales(H)

My predictions – I think they will lose to Croatia and will win the rest of the games. If results go their way, they can top the Group and gain a spot in World Cup. If they finish 2^nd in their group, they will have to play against one of the runners up in one of the groups to get an entry to the World Cup. If they are able to enter the World Cup, I think they will get to the quarter finals at least.

Do check our blog for upcoming articles, and our team will be back again with an article on one of the Potential Dark Horses.

-NAVODAY

Statistical Analysis of Top teams in Europe - Goals breakdown

 Our team at Fifth Official thought that as the International break is going on, it is best we made some fruitful use of our time and provide our followers with something to think about before the League action starts again!

As the 2012-13 season comes to an end and while many of the Leagues are a foregone conclusion with the leaders taking an insurmountable lead, we decided to take a look at the goal scoring break-up for teams (between forwards, midfielders and defenders)  and identify anything peculiar or surprising.

While our study reveals some facts which is known to everybody and is quite evident, some surprising numbers have also sprung up which might change one’s perspective with respect to a team/player.

So here is the data table which has been compiled. It consists of –

1.       Total goals scored by the team (TG)

2.       Total goals scored by Forwards and as a % of TG

3.       Total goals scored by Midfielders and as a % of TG

4.       Total goals scored by Defenders and as a % of TG

5.       Total goals scored by the team’s Top-scorer so far and as a % of TG

This has been done for the top teams in Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga. Have a look – 

(% in Red indicates the Top-3 in that category)

So, first, let us look at those facts which are not so surprising and were expected beforehand – 

1.       60% of Chelsea’s goals in the season have come from midfielders. This is obvious because of Torres and Ba’s continued struggle to find form and also the fact that Chelsea play only with 1 striker upfront. Whereas when we look at Manchester United who always play 2 strikers upfront, naturally their % of goals scored from Forwards (61%) is very high. Add to that Mata and Hazard’s scintillating form, the 60% goals scored by midfielders for Chelsea is not surprising at all.

2.       The above argument applies to Tottenham as well. 57% of goals from midfield is due to Gareth Bale’s high flying form and also vital contribution from the likes of Dempsey and Lennon. Also, their % of goals scored by defenders is 16% which is 2^nd best amongst the top teams due to Vertonghen and Caulker’s physical presence in the box during set-pieces.

3.       43% of Barcelona’s goals have come from their Top-scorer Lionel Messi. This clearly goes to show how over-reliant they are on Messi. David Villa’s arrival back from injury couldn’t have come at a better time for Barcelona.

4.       All three German teams have a very high % of goals scored by midfielders, inspite of the fact that their top-scorer is their striker. This only shows how the German clubs play football, with the entire team being involved in the attack (More like Total Football)

Now let us turn our attention to some surprising facts that have come out from this study – 

1.       Only 25% of Manchester United’s goals have been scored by Van Persie, the team’s top goal scorer. This is completely contradictory to the claims made by some that Manchester United are a one-man team.

2.       A look at the % goals scored by defenders for English teams (14%,11%,19%,16%) is the amongst the highest when compared to the other leagues. This clearly shows the physicality of the English game compared to other leagues. 

3.       19% of the goals scored by Chelsea in the season have come from defenders which is pretty impressive. 

4.       Napoli are hugely dependent on Edinson Cavani, with 45% of their goals coming from the Uruguayan hitman. If they are to play in Europe next season, Cavani cannot be their only source of goals.

What clubs can look to learn from these stats – 

1.       Manchester United and Manchester City need to improve on their goal contribution from midfield, which is currently only 25% and 31%.

2.       Tottenham and Chelsea have a disappointing 27% and 21% of their goals scored from forwards, which is certainly a cause for concern. 

3.       The % goals scored by defenders for Italian teams (9%,5%,3%) is disappointingly low and is something which the Italian clubs can improve on. Perhaps, more tactical work on their attacking set-pieces.

4.       Spanish teams have a high % of their goals scored by their top-scorer which clearly highlights their over – reliance on Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi and Radamel Falcao.

We will be coming up with much more statistical analysis like this in the future, in which we will concentrate on a particular team/player!

Hope this was an eye-opener for you! Until then, enjoy the international break!

-Ratish